I sat through every Red Wings' PK this season and lived to tell the tale

Diagnosing the Red Wings' Problems on the Penalty Kill

I’ve done a lot of crazy things in my life but few can be considered crazier than subjecting myself to all 105:54 of the Red Wings’ penalty kill this season.

But I did and I lived to tell the tale. With the Red Wings’ PK clicking at a historically awful 65.2% this season, it had to be done. Let’s break down what’s going wrong so far.

Problem #1 - The Wings Aren’t Consistently Winning Shorthanded Faceoffs

Ahead of the 2019-2020 season, the NHL introduced a couple of small rule changes, one being that the attacking team can choose where the faceoff is in the defensive zone to start a power play. This offers a minor advantage to the power play as they can pick their center’s strong side on the faceoff dot and/or potentially pick the weaker faceoff side for the shorthanded team. In an ideal situation for Detroit, the opening draw is on the left dot (shown below) and the Wings can trot out their best faceoff man, Dylan Larkin, to win the draw and start the PK with a kill.

When executed cleanly, Larkin can win the draw back to his defenseman (dashed arrow) who can skate the puck behind the net (squiggly arrow) and fire the puck around the boards (double lined arrow) for a clear. The other forward and defenseman run subtle picks to create time and space for that to happen. That opening clear is huge as it often kills ~15-20 seconds of PP time for the opposition’s top PP unit and allows the PK the opportunity to setup their neutral zone defense to deny an entry.

On the surface, DET sits 12th in the league in shorthanded faceoff percentage, winning 50% of their draws. However, that number is largely driven by Larkin having taken 40% of all shorthanded faceoffs. When you look at the splits by Detroit’s three primary faceoff men, a troubling trend emerges.

On defensive zone draws, the Wings’ top-3 faceoff guys are a combined 46.4%. Larkin leads the way at 51.7% but Copp (47.4%) and Compher (40%) are trailing. Compher, as Detroit’s only righthanded center, is counted on for the right side DZ draws but has struggled mightly. The inability to win these critical faceoffs ultimately puts the Wings on defense immediately.

Misplaced DZ Pressure

Following a lost faceoff, the Wings have to revert to their PK system which appears to prioritize three things:

1. Take away goal line plays

2. Negate the high slot one-timer and cross-slot one-timer

3. Pressure the point

What you’ll notice is when the puck rotates up to the point, the Wings take on a “1-1-2” formation where F1 pressures the point, F2 sticks with the man in the slot and is prepared to switch roles with F1 as needed to apply point pressure. The two defensemen are positioned inside the faceoff dots and are responsible for monitoring the netfront player as well as jumping out to get in shooting lanes if the puck is rotated to the halfboards.

From my viewings, the Wings emphasis on pressuring the point in this stacked 1-1-2 leaves a lot of space for the players on the half boards to receive a pass and then skate the puck into a dangerous scoring area at the top of slot. When you look at the chances given up by Detroit’s PK, it’s those half boards players doing the damage.

Watch how it breaks down against the New Jersey Devils here:

and against the Calgary Flames…

Just look at all this open ice here against the Islanders!

Right now teams are absolutely feasting on this area of the ice. If the Wings don’t block the shot, it’s essentially forcing their goalie to make a save on a shot from a high-danger location through a screen from a player that’s been able to pick their spot.

There’s no simple fixes to this but the Wings may want to consider reverting to a traditional wedge + 1 that is more vulnerable to “low-to-high” plays but does a better job at taking away the shots from the half boards.

Passive 1-3 NZ Pressure

When the Wings do manage a clear, their preferred NZ scheme is to pressure the puck carrier with F1 to either force the puck carrier to change direction of attack or make a drop pass. When executed well, the F1 disrupts the timing of the entry and allows the rest of the team to passively retreat through the NZ in a 1-3 formation to deny entry at, or just inside, the blue line. Here’s an example of it executed well against the Islanders.

Here Michael Rasmussen forces a drop pass and then quickly recovers to the middle of the ice to force the onrushing puck carrier toward the wing and into traffic. The other wrinkle to this is if the Wings do force a dump-in, you’ll see that the middle defender (Moritz Seider in the above video) on the blue line is a bit further back than the others to be in position to recover that dump-in while F1 drifts back to fill his spot along the blue line.

Where the Wings have been susceptable is if they are unable to disrupt the initial timing of the play or if the puck carrier makes a quick up pass along the boards. Referring back to the New Jersey goal above, watch how the quick pass to Jesper Bratt allows him to carry the puck without any pressure from F1. He then draws Edvinsson off the boards with his move to the middle and then makes a deft entry pass to Stefan Noesen in the space vacated by Edvinsson.

I believe the Wings’ NZ defense doesn’t need significant alteration, but they have to get more consistent and meaningful pressure to disrupt the timing through the neutral zone.

Goalies Can’t Save Them

Last but not least…it’s what happens when the Wings do give up a shot.

Coming in to this season, there were already issues from last season. Ahead of opening night, I wrote this:

- Can the Wings continue to get timely goaltending on the PK (88% PK SV%, 4th in the league) without improving their PK defense (31st in SH xGA/60)

Once again, the Red Wings sit near the bottom of the league (30th) in SH xGA/60. However, this time the Wings’ goalies sit 31st in PK SV% (77.6%). As good as Cam Talbot has been this year for Detroit, he’s dead last in shorthanded goals saved above expected (-7.05, Evolving-Hockey). Maybe the goalies rediscover their form from last year but the Wings certainly aren’t doing them any favors with the quality of chances they’re allowing.

Ultimately this is just the opinion of my unqualified eyes but at this point something’s gotta change because it’s costing the Red Wings games. The Wings allow the 9th fewest goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5, but their league-worst PK is sinking this ship quickly.