What Would It Take To Replicate The 2018-2019 St. Louis Blues' Run?

We’re six games into the Todd McLellan era in Detroit and the vibes are quite high. The Wings have won five straight conference games, including three games against teams they are chasing for a playoff spot. It’s led to a few rumblings wondering if the Wings could replicate the miraculous “worst-to-first” run by the St. Louis Blues in 2018-2019.

Note - I’m merely focusing on just making the playoffs and not actually replicating the Blues run to the Stanley Cup

When McLellan took over on December 26th, the Wings were the 2nd worst team in the Eastern Conference and eight points out of the final wildcard spot. Following their win against the Ottawa Senators. the Wings are 11th in the East and one point back of the final wildcard spot, albeit having played one more game than the Senators who currently occupy that spot.

The St. Louis Blues woke up on January 3rd, 2019 dead last in the Western Conference and 11 points back of a wildcard spot, albeit with four games in hand. I’m not here to tell you the Wings will do it, the probability of them doing it, or anything like that. I want to showcase what it will likely take for the Wings to get back to General Manager Steve Yzerman’s preseason expectation of “competing for a wildcard spot”.

During the crash that led to the firing of Mike Yeo and naming of Craig Berube as interim head coach, the Blues struggled to score goals and keep them out of their net. Their 5v5 play and special teams were middle of the pack but they simply could not convert their chances and could not keep the puck out of their own net.

Their surge saw their 5v5 play rise to the top of the league, their goaltending dramatically improve with the call-up of Jordan Binnington from the AHL, and their special teams play move into the top-10 of the league. By the 2nd week of February, the Blues were back in the playoff picture. The Blues got better in every facet of the game allowing them to roll off a .722 points percentage and a 5th place finish in the conference.

On the surface, do the Wings profile similarly to those 2018-2019 Blues?

Comparing the two side-by-side, the biggest thing that stands out to me is that St. Louis was significantly better at 5v5 (represented by 5v5 xGF%) while the Wings’ power play is significantly better than the Blues. For me, the biggest thing that will determine if the Wings can make such a run is if they can up their 5v5 play and bring their penalty kill to at least league average (~80%). In the first six games of the McLellan era, the Wings are up a bit with their 5v5 xGF% but are still heavily reliant on their power play for goal scoring. If they can get that 5v5 xGF% up to 50% (and ideally into the 53-54% range the rest of the way), I’ll feel much better about their chances. This will be the most challenging task for the Wings to make a serious run at getting back into the playoff picture. If the Wings can manage this and if the changes to the Wings’ PK can bring their PK to league average, they’ll be equipped to make a run.

The next question to consider is if the environment is conducive to a team making a push. As of right now, the major public outlets have the final wildcard team in the Eastern Conference at ~88-90 points with both wildcard teams coming from the Atlantic Division (Boston, Ottawa). If the mark does land at <90 points, that would be the lowest point total in a full season from a playoff team since 2015-2016 (Minnesota Wild, 87 points). This certainly leaves the door open for a team outside the playoff picture to fight their way back in. Should the mark end up at 89 points, the Wings would need to take 49 points from their final 42 games, a 0.583 points percentage (roughly a 22-15-5 record).