What's The Plan, Steve?

Identifying the "Next" Window of Contention

The panic button has officially been slammed. After their disastrous road trip came to an end with an overtime loss in San Jose, Wings’ fans and hockey media turned the dial up to 11 with “Yzerplan” discussions. Numerous articles and comments questioned the direction of the team, Derek Lalonde’s job security, and where the Red Wings should go from here.

It’s a rough time right now. After missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker, the Wings currently sit 14th in the East by points percentage. The offense is putrid, the penalty kill is atrocious, and the stellar goaltending to start the season is regressing. However, amongst all the doom and gloom, one post caught my eye from former Calgary Flames analyst, David Johnson.

I’ve talked in the past how I think the Wings potentially missed an opportunity to jumpstart the rebuild with aggressive free agency swings/offersheets in 2021. I thought they potentially missed an opportunity to tank for a top-5 pick in a loaded 2023 draft. The past is the past, and as David points out, there’s a chance those “quick fixes” don’t actually result in a “quick fix”. The focus must now shift to identifying the next potential window for contention with this team and the questions that will ultimately need to be answered to determine if this will be possible. David raises the window of ages 25-30 for Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider which would represent the 2026-2027 through 2030-2031 seasons. Let’s sketch it out to see what it could look like.

The Salary Cap Breakdown

Using data from The Stanley Cap, let’s sketch out what the Wings’ salary cap situation will look like in 2026-2027.

In 2026-2027, the Wings will have 7 of their current forwards under contract along with Nate Danielson, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, and Emmitt Finnie in the final year of their entry-level contracts (ELC). They will have just one current defenseman under contract in Seider along with Axel Sandin-Pellikka and Shai Buium in the final years of their ELC’s. In goal, the Wings do not have any current goalies signed but will have the RFA rights for Sebastian Cossa, Carter Gylander, and Gage Alexander in addition to the unsigned Trey Augustine. There are other prospects that the Wings will have rights to but I have not included them in this display due to them not currently being under contract 2026-2027.

Looking at the data in totality, the Wings will likely have 9 NHL forwards and 2 NHL defensemen under contract for a total of $48 million in committed cap. With rumors of the salary cap rising to $95-97 million for 2025-2026, there’s a potential that we’re looking at a $100 million salary cap to start 2026-2027. If that is indeed the case, then the Wings’ ability to contend will hinge on the below salary factors:

• Can the Wings get Simon Edvinsson locked up on a long-term, team-friendly deal earlier than they did with Seider and Raymond? Edvinsson is eligible to sign an extension starting July 1st, 2025 so I would expect the Wings to push for that aggressively. If they can get him at a number under an 8% cap hit, that will set the Wings up for success.

Can the Wings offload one of Andrew Copp or J.T. Compher in favor of a more cost-effective depth center option? In the face of a $100 million cap, their cap hits aren’t particularly detrimental, but if the Wings are able to move on from one or both of them prior to the 2026-2027 season for a cheaper alternative, that will provide them extra cushion to handle a busy 2027 offseason that will necessitate new deals for Danielson, Sandin-Pellikka, and Marco Kasper.

Assuming the Wings’ top line and top pairing can at a minimum sustain their current level of play, the development of Kasper, Danielson, Brandsegg-Nygård, Dmitry Buchelnikov, Carter Mazur, and potentially Amadeus Lombardi will give insight into how much the Wings need to go shopping for middle-six scoring. It will likely be year three for Kasper, year 2 for Danielson and Mazur, and year 1 for Buchelnikov and Brandsegg-Nygård so expectations should be tempered. However, if 3 of those players can provide cost-effective, depth scoring in the middle-six, the Wings will have the framework of their offense in place.

Similarly on defense, I would expect 2026-2027 to be year 1 for Sandin-Pellikka and I am not currently optimistic for Wallinder or Buium factoring in to the NHL roster so if Sandin-Pellikka can hold down a top-4 spot, the Wings will be in position to round out the bottom-half of their defense.

Finally, goaltending is the ultimate wildcard. Cossa and Augustine are off to tremendous starts this year, giving hope that one or both will be ready to shoulder a heavy workload in 2026-2027. If they can, the Wings will have their goaltending tandem set for the future.

All of this sounds wonderful on paper, but it’s dependent on several players continuing to develop at a consistent rate and ultimately the reliance on a relatively young roster come 2026-2027. There are examples of these types of rosters still being successful (the 2007-2008 Blackhawks come to mind) but I’ll be curious to see if the front office does truly embrace that approach.

Can the core be “The Core”

We’ve spent a lot of time talking about the depth under the assumption that Larkin, Raymond, and Seider can hold up as the Wings’ #1 C, #1 W, and #1 D come 2026-2027. Using Micah Blake McCurdy’s synthetic goals (sG), an estimate of a player’s ability at a given point in time, we can visualize the leaps that will be needed from each of these players to match what their peers have done in comparable situations.

Starting with Seider, we’re finally seeing him take the next step paired next to Simon Edvinsson. If Seider is able to sustain that level of play for the rest of the season and pull himself into the Aaron Ekblad territory, the front office should have some confidence in him being able to continue that trajectory given what we know about defense peaks in the NHL.

With Raymond, he’s currently pacing well relative to Mikko Rantanen but the key with both Rantanen and Mitch Marner is they continued to improve significantly all the way out to age 25. Raymond this year hasn’t taken the same “jump” but there’s still plenty of time for him to take off. If he can get back on track to mirroring the Rantanen development curve, the Wings can feel confident about their 1W of the future.

Last but not least, there’s Larkin. At 28, he’s already firmly in 1C territory and compares quite favorably to two centers that have been a part of strong playoff teams. However, take note that we’re still 2 years away from the proposed contention window and Larkin’s ability to sustain this level for the next 3-5 years will be critical to the Wings’ success.

Ultimately, this entire piece is a bunch of “what-ifs”. Can Larkin, Raymond, and Seider establish themselves as true 1C/1W/1D through the proposed contention window? Can Kasper, Danielson, and Brandsegg-Nygård establish themselves as top-6 players capable of scoring, driving 5v5 play, and playing in all situations? Can Sandin-Pellikka’s offense translate to the NHL so that he can establish himself as a true #1 power play quarterback? Will Cossa and/or Augustine establish themselves as true #1 goalies?

The truth is I don’t know if any of the above will happen with any degree of certainty, but in the face of all this doom and gloom, I think it’s important to shine the light on the goal and identify what has to happen in order to get there. Hopefully this gave some of you something to latch on to as the Wings’ struggle through the start of the season.