If I Were Steve Yzerman (2025) - Part 1
I genuinely did not know if I would find time to get this done this year. I thought I’d have a chance in May but solo parenting a toddler on vacation for a week wiped me out. I thought I’d have a chance the first week of June, but an all week team workshop took more of my time than I anticipated. But here we are in the middle of June and…we’re so back. It’s time for “If I Were Steve Yzerman - 2025 Edition”.
For those familiar with this series, it will follow the same manner of decision-making where I lay out what I would do if I were in Steve’s shoes. For those unfamiliar with this series, I’ve tried my hand at this exercise in 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 (with 2017, 2019, and 2021 being lost when SBN went dark and 2023 being lost when I deleted Twitter) and I always offer the following disclaimer:
A lot of this (maybe even all of it) will be wrong and I am ok with that.
The foundation of this is based in my analysis of statistics and video. I will attempt to link explainers to statistics along the way but if you aren't familiar with a term or concept, please ask!
These are the moves I would make if I were GM to best position the Red Wings in the short-term and long-term while maintaining as much cap and roster flexibility as possible.
These are not predictions for what I think will happen
Current State
In last year’s edition, I suggested that the Wings opt for a relatively quiet 2024 offseason and focus on elevating younger players into larger roles.
The 2024 offseason will not be focused on fireworks. Instead, the Wings should focus on sustaining the success from this past season, bringing younger players into the fold, and optimizing their cap flexibility in order to be a major player in the 2025 offseason.
For the most part the Wings did just that, particularly after Todd McLellan took over as head coach in late December. The incorporation of Elmer Söderblom, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson, and Marco Kasper into larger roles played a big part in the Wings’ strong play in the first couple of months under McLellan.
Despite the development of their young players, it was always going to be an uphill battle for the Wings to make the playoffs. In my opinion, success would come from the Wings focusing on obtaining answers to the following questions that would allow them to prepare for a potential contending window of 2026-27 to 2031-2032 (for more on why I selected this contention window please see the linked article in the previous sentence).
Can Larkin, Raymond, and Seider establish themselves as true 1C/1W/1D through the proposed contention window?
Can Kasper, Danielson, and Brandsegg-Nygård establish themselves as top-6 players capable of scoring, driving 5v5 play, and playing in all situations?
Can Sandin-Pellikka’s offense translate to the NHL so that he can establish himself as a true #1 power play quarterback?
Will Cossa and/or Augustine establish themselves as true #1 goalies?
By far the most critical question to answer was if Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, and Moritz Seider could establish themselves as a bonafide #1C, #1W, and #1D respectively. Using Dom Luszczyszyn’s Net Rating, we can visualize where Larkin, Raymond, and Seider stand relative to peers from contending teams.
Starting with Seider - this was the jump everyone was waiting for. With Seider on the ice at 5v5, the Wings outchanced and outscored opponents despite facing some of the toughest competition in the league. Furthermore, Seider finished 10th in the league in Net Rating amongst defenseman. With the average peak for NHL players occurring around age 25-27, it will be fascinating to see Seider’s growth. The Wings absolutely have their #1 defenseman of the future and arguably a future Norris Trophy contender if he continues on this development path.
Not far behind, Raymond also continued his stellar development path. Raymond just missed out on a point-per-game season, finishing with 80 points in 82 games and the 15th best Net Rating amongst wingers. Comparing his trajectory to that of other elite wingers, it’s not hard to imagine Raymond finding another gear next season to truly cement himself as one of the league’s best.
Last but not least is Larkin’s trajectory. Larkin just concluded his age-28 season which is on the tail-end of his prime and when we start to see performance (specifically offensive performance) decline year-over-year for the average forward.
That’s not to say that Larkin can’t buck the trend like Mark Scheifele did this past year but it’s important for us to acknowledge that this is an exception, not the norm. Another interesting factoid (that I’ll throw out anyways with a casual acknowledgment of the variance that exists in the NHL playoffs) - only two teams in the last 20 years have won the Stanley Cup with their 1C (by TOI/GP) being 30 years or older - Nicklas Bäckström (30) on the 2017-18 Capitals and Rod Brind’Amour on the 2005-06 Hurricanes.
There have certainly been other good teams in the league with 1C’s older than 30 that didn’t win the Cup such as the Jets and Kings this year or the Sharks teams of the mid-2010’s. For one reason or another, none of those teams were able to get it done in the playoffs. With Larkin turning 29 next month, the Wings have to ask themselves:
Is Dylan Larkin’s level high enough to be the 1C on a contending team and will he be able to sustain his current level for 3-4 more seasons, being mindful of his injury history?
Is there an option within the system that has the potential to take over as the 1C role from Larkin in the next 2 years, similar to the transition that occurred with Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point? If not, is there a reasonable option to acquire via trade or free agency in that timeframe?
If the answer to both of those questions is a resounding no, then the question shifts a bit to a very uncomfortable one - should the Wings consider trading Dylan Larkin for a package involving a high first round pick/top C prospect in the hopes that they can land an elite center with a development timeline more closely aligned to Raymond and Seider?
As it pertains to question 1, I lean towards no. While Larkin played at arguably the highest level of his career prior to the Four Nations break, his played tailed off dramatically the rest of the way. With Larkin turning 29 next year, I think the safer baseline is to assume another 1-2 years of similar production to this past season before we see noticeable dips in offensive production year-over-year.
As for question 2…for me, it’s the biggest wildcard entering next season - what do we expect from Marco Kasper?
On January 7th, Kasper was elevated in the lineup and given a shot to play with Larkin and Raymond. From that point on, Kasper scored 17 goals and 30 points with all but one of those points coming at even strength. His 29 even strength points in that time frame were tops on the Wings and tied for 21st most in the league alongside Alex Ovechkin, Filip Forsberg, and Clayton Keller. With Kasper on the ice, the Wings had a 5v5 GF% of 62.6% and a 5v5 xGF% of 53.94%, tops among DET players with >200 minutes of ice time.
Comparing his impact to other U-21 centers, we see that Kasper had one of the top U-21 seasons by a center (based on NHL.com position data) going back to 2007-08. Notably for Kasper, this was his first full season in the NHL whereas a majority of the other top seasons were from players who had played at least one season already in the NHL. So what does next season entail for Kasper? I honestly have no freaking idea. Kasper’s season was an anomaly when looking for comps. Since 2007-2008, only 28 rookie forwards have played >15 minutes a night, scored >35 points, but recorded fewer than 5 power play points. The best of those players? Dylan Larkin in 2014-2015.
Looking ahead to next season, Kasper’s role on the top power play unit is up in the air pending what the Wings do this offseason. If he’s given a shot on the top power play unit and sustains his strong even-strength play, Kasper may be able to take a massive leap and cement himself as the next top center in the Wings’ system. For that reason alone, I don’t think this is the offseason to aggressively explore a Larkin trade unless an offer too good to refuse comes my way. I think it’s worth giving Kasper an elevated role next year (2C, PP1, PK2) and letting that run for a solid 30+ game run before doing anything too crazy.
For Nate Danielson, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Sebastian Cossa, and Trey Augustine, it’s still too early to pencil in when they will crack the NHL lineup but I’d bet against any of these players becoming full-time NHLers next season. The best bet to get a shot would be Sandin-Pellikka if he can replicate his strong SHL numbers in the more physical AHL.
After thinking through our key questions, what else do we have to consider before laying out our offseason plan? We can start by measuring the Wings’ 2025-2026 roster (before offseason shenanigans) against the average Stanley Cup winner’s roster.
Earlier this year, The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn penned an updated version of his Stanley Cup winner’s roster checklist, identifying 13 roster roles that most Stanley Cup champions have satisfied. For each of the roles, the players are graded relative to the players filling the same role on other Cup winners and categorized as follows:
Notably, only two of the last fifteen Cup winners have had more than one of these roles occupied by a player in the “exception” bucket. Last year’s champion, the Florida Panthers had zero exceptions and just two roles filled by players in the “passable” category. The checklist at a minimum appears to withstand the “smell” test and offers us a reasonable starting place to perform a needs assessment for the Wings heading in to the offseason.
To start, I classified the Wings’ players currently under contract for next season into the defined skater roles on the checklist along with their Net Rating from last season. I omitted the “Star Goalie” role due to me not having access to historical goalie Net Rating data but I think most Wings’ fans can comfortably place where the current goalies would land on the checklist...
Next, I plotted each player’s Net Rating against the role I assigned them and the category ranges for that specific role. Example - Lucas Raymond’s Net Rating of 12.8 is represented by the black dot for “Franchise Forward” and the color bars represent the “exception”, “passable”, “solid”, “ideal”, and “luxury” ranges for previous Cup winning Franchise Forwards.
As you digest the graphic, I was struck by the fact that the top part of Detroit’s lineup, the part that represents the “Elite Core”, doesn’t look that bad! In fact, Raymond is considered passable as a Franchise Forward and Larkin solid as a Star Forward, while DeBrincat’s offense is ideal for a Shutdown Forward and Seider’s defense is above luxury thresholds for a Franchise Defenseman. Where things fall apart is as you move through the support core and depth core with the Wings largely having players below the exception level. The even bigger problem? Those 6 players that are “below the exception level” currently account for ~27% of the Wings’ salary cap space for next season.
With all of that being said, if the Wings are to open their contention window next year, I think there are three main priorities this offseason:
Must shed at least one expensive depth defenseman contract and replace with a substantially more productive option that can satisfy the “ideal”. threshold for a Shutdown Defenseman
Ideally shed at least one expensive depth forward contract and replace with a younger, cheaper, and ideally more productive option that can satisfy the “ideal” threshold for a Support Forward
Not wanting to put all eggs in the “Kasper development basket”, look to add a top-6 forward that can satisfy the “ideal” threshold for a Scoring Forward
The exact moves I’d make are coming your way in Part 2…
Such good methodical work. Can’t wait for the next segments!
Always a pleasure to read your thoughts. Appreciate your work!