Excellent work, as always. I completely agree with your analysis on next steps. Kasper seems like a solid bet as a 2C, will be very interesting if he can further develop offensively.
Interesting that you think ASP is the most likely to crack the NHL roster. Why not Danielson? He has looked pretty good in two consecutive training camps and then put up better numbers than Kasper's last AHL year despite playing on a worse version of GR. I'd think he'd have the best chance of a) making the team right out of camp and b) making an immediate impact.
I agree. Danielson’s season was very similar to Kasper’s in GR. Why not a similar path for Nate on the wing? If he was a LH shot I’d say it might be a lock.
The other thing in the back of my mind is just that forwards often have an easier transition than defensemen. I think ASP could be very good, but I have a hard time seeing him becoming an immediate positive contributor.
ASP is also a smaller D adjusting to American ice, unlike someone like Hughes who grew up playing on ice that size. I'd be curious to see a comperable to ASP from that perspective.
I think re: Kasper v Danielson, people aren't giving enough weight to quality of linemates each was paired with, wings pillaged GR by the end of the season. Does Danielson perform better with better linemates? I think had a similar situation before he made the move to GR as wel
That being said, some also argued something similar for Zadina and that never really planned out. But they are very different style of players.
Re: small D from overseas - the one I can think of is Karlsson. Came over at age 19, played a dozen games in the AHL and scored at a point-per-game before being brought up. That's one possibility, but no one remembers David Rundblad. Same age as Karlsson, put up the same numbers at age-18 in the SHL, but struggled to stick at the NHL level. One guy is a HoF dman, the other is a never-was.
ASP has had a few injuries in the SHL. He probably needs a year to get stronger. It’s hard to have a workout program during an NHL season. In the AHL there’s bigger gaps between games more often. Allows players to have a strength workout routine.
Erik Brainstorm was another interesting name that came up, looks like he came over earlier than ASP but still can't seem to break through at 25. Actually looks like he may be headed back to the SHL next year.
Sean Shapiro made a good point about Kasper/Danielson comparison. He pointed out that Kasper was coming from overseas while Danielson has been playing North American hockey his whole life. North American players don’t really evolve that much and he questioned the Wings ability to evaluate North American prospects. All the prospect hits have been from overseas.
Eh too early to tell on SYs picks. He's had plenty of NA picks that could be good, Mazur, Lambo, Buium, Plante, the two Gs. Most of his 1st rounders have been EP based. I don't think he has a round 1 miss yet, so not going to write off Danielson. People were down on Kasper a year ago as well.
Danielson is so weird because people are really down on him, but he had a pretty solid season last year on a middling team. The real problem with Danielson is that it's a recurring story - "he's on an iffy team so his counting stats aren't great but just wait until he gets to play with good players!"
The only sample of him playing on a legit good team was the 28 games he played in Portland, where he was a 1.5ppg player after being a 1ppg guy in Brandon. Is that potential real? We won't know what he is until he plays with the big club.
He is back! Great stuff as always Prashanth. Thanks for your thoughtful analysis. So sad to think we are already moving into the later stages of Larkin's prime. Any chance for a bounce back year from last year's unsuccessful free agents Gustafsson or Tarasenko?
People are drinking to Gustafson Kool aid I think, I'd be curious to see if the numbers post Lalonde line up with what people seem to think as an improvement in play. He killed it counting stats wise in the worlds, can't speak to his D play though. I'd say I'd be happy if he was D 6/7 next year with Holl dumped somewhere. But I wouldn't be surprised to see all the D back.
Love it! Very happy I found this, as WIIM commenters gave you a shoutout. Would you consider Albert Johansson to replace the shutdown defenseman role, in a forward-looking assessment?
I have subscribed, I've heard good things about this annual piece from the WWP, so I am excited to see part 2. I'm curious to see how the numbers influence your approach since all the math in sports is beyond what I'm willing to learn lol.
Such good methodical work. Can’t wait for the next segments!
Always a pleasure to read your thoughts. Appreciate your work!
Excellent work, as always. I completely agree with your analysis on next steps. Kasper seems like a solid bet as a 2C, will be very interesting if he can further develop offensively.
I look forward to reading this every year.
Interesting that you think ASP is the most likely to crack the NHL roster. Why not Danielson? He has looked pretty good in two consecutive training camps and then put up better numbers than Kasper's last AHL year despite playing on a worse version of GR. I'd think he'd have the best chance of a) making the team right out of camp and b) making an immediate impact.
I agree. Danielson’s season was very similar to Kasper’s in GR. Why not a similar path for Nate on the wing? If he was a LH shot I’d say it might be a lock.
The other thing in the back of my mind is just that forwards often have an easier transition than defensemen. I think ASP could be very good, but I have a hard time seeing him becoming an immediate positive contributor.
ASP is also a smaller D adjusting to American ice, unlike someone like Hughes who grew up playing on ice that size. I'd be curious to see a comperable to ASP from that perspective.
I think re: Kasper v Danielson, people aren't giving enough weight to quality of linemates each was paired with, wings pillaged GR by the end of the season. Does Danielson perform better with better linemates? I think had a similar situation before he made the move to GR as wel
That being said, some also argued something similar for Zadina and that never really planned out. But they are very different style of players.
Re: small D from overseas - the one I can think of is Karlsson. Came over at age 19, played a dozen games in the AHL and scored at a point-per-game before being brought up. That's one possibility, but no one remembers David Rundblad. Same age as Karlsson, put up the same numbers at age-18 in the SHL, but struggled to stick at the NHL level. One guy is a HoF dman, the other is a never-was.
ASP has had a few injuries in the SHL. He probably needs a year to get stronger. It’s hard to have a workout program during an NHL season. In the AHL there’s bigger gaps between games more often. Allows players to have a strength workout routine.
Erik Brainstorm was another interesting name that came up, looks like he came over earlier than ASP but still can't seem to break through at 25. Actually looks like he may be headed back to the SHL next year.
Yeah doesn't seem to be a lot of examples for a guy like him coming over, but people are probably going to need to be patient.
Sean Shapiro made a good point about Kasper/Danielson comparison. He pointed out that Kasper was coming from overseas while Danielson has been playing North American hockey his whole life. North American players don’t really evolve that much and he questioned the Wings ability to evaluate North American prospects. All the prospect hits have been from overseas.
Eh too early to tell on SYs picks. He's had plenty of NA picks that could be good, Mazur, Lambo, Buium, Plante, the two Gs. Most of his 1st rounders have been EP based. I don't think he has a round 1 miss yet, so not going to write off Danielson. People were down on Kasper a year ago as well.
Danielson is so weird because people are really down on him, but he had a pretty solid season last year on a middling team. The real problem with Danielson is that it's a recurring story - "he's on an iffy team so his counting stats aren't great but just wait until he gets to play with good players!"
The only sample of him playing on a legit good team was the 28 games he played in Portland, where he was a 1.5ppg player after being a 1ppg guy in Brandon. Is that potential real? We won't know what he is until he plays with the big club.
He is back! Great stuff as always Prashanth. Thanks for your thoughtful analysis. So sad to think we are already moving into the later stages of Larkin's prime. Any chance for a bounce back year from last year's unsuccessful free agents Gustafsson or Tarasenko?
People are drinking to Gustafson Kool aid I think, I'd be curious to see if the numbers post Lalonde line up with what people seem to think as an improvement in play. He killed it counting stats wise in the worlds, can't speak to his D play though. I'd say I'd be happy if he was D 6/7 next year with Holl dumped somewhere. But I wouldn't be surprised to see all the D back.
Love it! Very happy I found this, as WIIM commenters gave you a shoutout. Would you consider Albert Johansson to replace the shutdown defenseman role, in a forward-looking assessment?
I have subscribed, I've heard good things about this annual piece from the WWP, so I am excited to see part 2. I'm curious to see how the numbers influence your approach since all the math in sports is beyond what I'm willing to learn lol.
What a cliffhanger!