It’s Time To Refuel, Steve

You know when you’re on a road trip and all of a sudden the gas light comes on signaling low fuel and you immediately do the mental calculation in your head if you have enough to reach your destination? Maybe you fiddle with the air conditioning or you change your acceleration/deceleration tactics but more often than not you realize that you probably need to pull over and fill up the tank.

With 34 games to go in the regular season, it’s starting to feel like the Red Wings’ gas light has turned on. Since December 1st, the Red Wings lead the league with a 15-5-2 record, good for a league-best 32 points and 15 regulation/overtime wins. However, a peek under the hood reveals that the Wings might be primed for a slump.

Now before we get too far, I want to make clear that this is not a post to bring doom and gloom. Rather, this is a post intending to show that this team is at risk for a collapse if they can’t get their 5v5 play turned around soon and they deserve some help from the front office.

Over their last 15 games, the Wings rank last in the league with 2.34 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes and have mustered a paltry 24.5 shots on goal per game.

Furthermore, their key guys are slumping. Dylan Larkin has one 5v5 point in his last 21 games, tied for the fewest points of any Red Wings’ player over that timeframe. Emmitt Finnie has similarly struggled at 5v5 with just three 5v5 points in his past 39 games. Marco Kasper hasn’t scored a goal since Halloween. Even Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson have seen their level drop a bit with a sub-50% 5v5 xGF% over the last 15 games. If it weren’t for Andrew Copp, Alex DeBrincat, and James van Riemdsyk, I’m not sure where this team would be offensively right now.

Over the last 15 games, the Wings have played 403:31 at 5v5 without one of James van Riemsdyk or Andrew Copp on the ice. They’ve scored just 8 goals, good for 1.19 5v5 goals/60. So how on Earth is this team still winning games? That’d be John Gibson.

Since December 1st (15 games), Gibson leads the league in goals saved above average (12.75) and is 4th in goals saved above expected (16.58). I plan on doing a deeper dive on Gibson soon so I won’t spoil all the data here and to be honest, we don’t need more data to illustrate just how good Gibson’s been. He’s been sensational and the Wings’ MVP since December 1st.

At the end of the day, it’s “Just Win Baby” and the Red Wings have done just that. They’re 4th in the East in points percentage and most outlets have the Wings’ playoff chances at >60%. They’ve banked the points to be able to survive a lull and right now Gibson’s keeping them afloat. However, this team needs to get things going again at 5v5 if they’re going to survive this brutal Atlantic Division down the stretch.

Todd McLellan has tried the lineup blender without much success. The answer also doesn’t seem to be in Grand Rapids as the Wings have tried out John Leonard and Nate Danielson with varying degrees of success. Maybe the Olympic Break will help a team that’s dealt with a league-leading 10 back-to-back games already, although with Larkin, Seider, and Lucas Raymond going, I’m not sure the stars will get the break they may need.

At this point, I think it’s time the Wings’ invest in outside help. And in my opinion, this roster deserves that injection of fuel. When we measure the Wings’ roster against the average Stanley Cup winner’s roster using Dom Luszczyszyn’s Stanley Cup winner’s roster checklist. In the checklist, Dom identifying 13 roster roles that most Stanley Cup champions have satisfied. For each of the roles, the players are graded relative to the players filling the same role on other Cup winners and categorized as follows:

Notably, only two of the last sixteen Cup winners have had more than one of these roles occupied by a player in the “exception” bucket. Last year’s champion, the Florida Panthers had one exception and just three roles filled by players in the “passable” category. The checklist at a minimum appears to withstand the “smell” test and offers us a reasonable starting place to critique the Wings’ roster.

What jumps off the page here is the fact that the Wings look pretty good relative to the average Cup champion. Yes, they have four exceptions, but they also have three luxuries and five solid players that mirror what you’d find on a Cup champion. This is a talented roster. However, when we pick apart this checklist, there’s a couple of areas that jump out to me as the focus areas for general manager Steve Yzerman:

• A strong top-four defenseman, preferably one with more offensive upside

• A middle-six scoring forward that can provide some 5v5 scoring

• A bottom-pair defenseman that is defensively responsible and can lessen Chiarot’s workload

With names like Rasmus Andersson, Dougie Hamilton, and Justin Faulk on trade boards, the Wings could satisfy the top-four offensive defenseman piece and they have the picks/prospects to do so. Similarly, guys like Kiefer Sherwood, Steven Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly, and Bryan Rust could solve the middle-six forward with offensive upside. The Wings could swing bigger and look at guy like Robert Thomas from St. Louis to really bolster their offense but I don’t think it’s an absolute must. Last but not least, guys like Brett Kulak, Logan Stanley, or even Connor Murphy could be options for the bottom-pair defensively responsible guy.

I don’t expect the Wings to try and rectify all three gaps before the trade deadline this year and I don’t think they really should unless the costs are reasonable. At a minimum though, this team has earned the right to bring in reinforcements. In terms of what I’d like to see, I’d love for them to at least address the middle-six scoring forward and bottom-pair defenseman before the trade deadline to shore up their support and depth groups. It’s time to refuel, Steve.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and NHL.com.

EDIT - some folks asked to see what the graphic would look like if I made Axel Sandin-Pellikka the “Scoring Defenseman” and Simon Edvinsson the “Shutdown Defenseman” to better align with their play styles. It turns an “Exception” at Shutdown Defenseman into an “Ideal” fit although I think it masks the fact that the Wings likely need at least two defensemen in an ideal world.