You know when you’re on a road trip and all of a sudden the gas light comes on signaling low fuel and you immediately do the mental calculation in your head if you have enough to reach your destination?
As expected, great piece. Yzerman apologist here, but it hasn’t felt like the right time in a long time. Until now. I’d like to see him go and get DeBrusk from Van to play on the top line LW and Logan Stanley from WPG as well. Soucy, Oleksiak and even Ferraro could all help the blue line. If Steve spends assets for a forward I hope it’s for someone who can make impact in the top 6 for a few years to come.
The forwards the Prashanth suggests are more likely a fit with respect to compete level - "Similarly, guys like Kiefer Sherwood, Steven Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly, and Bryan Rust could solve the middle-six forward with offensive upside"
I think Sherwood would fit the age of the group the best with O'Reilly being the best 2 way fit.
Like Debrusk but I think he gets the broken motivator cuff comment a lot. Kinda like Anthony Mantha where sometimes they are not engaged is the knock. I think one of Steve's prerequisites is high compete level.
Given the TBL familiarity and the fact that it hasn't worked out all that well re: fit in Nashville, I really do wonder if Stamkos would be a possibility. His contract isn't crippling and talk about a scoring touch. Having him and Kaner and JVR all on the same team would make 2014 me have a seizure lol
These are all the reasons I prefer RO’R as a target, plus his defensive acumen. We know that’s important to Steve, and his level of compete is legendary. Stammer would be one more guy that needs to be sheltered in his usage, I think.
Really depends on getting him at a reasonable extension price. Otherwise I’m not sure the Wings are in a position to spend on pure rentals like Panarin right now
Good Article and I agree. I would like to see the Top 4 D issue get resolved. Specifically Rasmus Anderson. Pair with Ben C. and could move 20 and 44 to third pair to let them play but grow. Really feel strong about adding RHD. Agree in the article from Prashanth that Wings need 1 more scoring player, would love to see it but I would prefer the D more. Gibson deserves it. I think Wings have the assets (picks and prospects) to make many deals but I would prefer 1 solid deal to reward/help the team and save the assets for down the road. DO NOT want to run out of assets like TO or EDM. LGRW!
I think Rasmus would be a mistake. RD is not a long term need and he’ll be looking for a massive extension after a huge acquisition. He’s also severely over rated, struggles in the D zone and doesn’t have the offensive pop he once did.
No way I’d want to shell out three major pieces and then have to pay him more than Seider while he immediately becomes the third best D on the team. Spending all those assets and still having big holes at LW1 and second pair LD would be a big mistake in my opinion.
Is there a case we need to look at more situational analytics in analyzing 5on5 play?
The RW have one of the league’s best power plays and McLellan is all about game management. It feels like McLellan tries to manage games to build a lead and score 3 goals, but once this is accomplished he instructs the players to basically stop shooting and run out the clock.
For this reason, when the RW are playing well and building early leads the team spends a lot of game time emphasizing puck possession. In other words, RW 5on5 metrics end up being bad when the team is playing well bc they take the lead on 5on4 and then play a majority of the game not to lose.
Your last blog post re the 1st line 5on5 metrics sort of supports this analysis. During October and December/January (best months for the team) the first lines xGoal metrics sucked while during November (worst month for the team, RW constantly playing from behind) the 1st line had its best 5on5 metrics of the year.
Your Franchise forward would improve from passable to solid and your shutdown forward goes from luxury to solid (offense) and from exception to luxury (defense).
If you do that and you make the defense switch Prashanth mentions at the end of the article you actually look like a really solid contender based on the checklist... But to me that indicates the 6 players the checklist ignores must be more important than the checklist implies or else the Wings are a much better team than they get credit for. Probably some of both.
As expected, great piece. Yzerman apologist here, but it hasn’t felt like the right time in a long time. Until now. I’d like to see him go and get DeBrusk from Van to play on the top line LW and Logan Stanley from WPG as well. Soucy, Oleksiak and even Ferraro could all help the blue line. If Steve spends assets for a forward I hope it’s for someone who can make impact in the top 6 for a few years to come.
The forwards the Prashanth suggests are more likely a fit with respect to compete level - "Similarly, guys like Kiefer Sherwood, Steven Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly, and Bryan Rust could solve the middle-six forward with offensive upside"
I think Sherwood would fit the age of the group the best with O'Reilly being the best 2 way fit.
Like Debrusk but I think he gets the broken motivator cuff comment a lot. Kinda like Anthony Mantha where sometimes they are not engaged is the knock. I think one of Steve's prerequisites is high compete level.
Given the TBL familiarity and the fact that it hasn't worked out all that well re: fit in Nashville, I really do wonder if Stamkos would be a possibility. His contract isn't crippling and talk about a scoring touch. Having him and Kaner and JVR all on the same team would make 2014 me have a seizure lol
lol I like him for what he can bring to PP2, a veteran leader, a Cup winner. A lot of intangibles on top of on ice contributions
These are all the reasons I prefer RO’R as a target, plus his defensive acumen. We know that’s important to Steve, and his level of compete is legendary. Stammer would be one more guy that needs to be sheltered in his usage, I think.
100%. With that Panarin news, what do you think of him as a scoring solution? Get a hot Blackhawks scoring line going lol
Obviously at a palatable price.
Really depends on getting him at a reasonable extension price. Otherwise I’m not sure the Wings are in a position to spend on pure rentals like Panarin right now
I’ve been saying we need Stamkos for the last year. That would be a dream. First time I’ve seen the metrics laid out like that, great stuff!
Good Article and I agree. I would like to see the Top 4 D issue get resolved. Specifically Rasmus Anderson. Pair with Ben C. and could move 20 and 44 to third pair to let them play but grow. Really feel strong about adding RHD. Agree in the article from Prashanth that Wings need 1 more scoring player, would love to see it but I would prefer the D more. Gibson deserves it. I think Wings have the assets (picks and prospects) to make many deals but I would prefer 1 solid deal to reward/help the team and save the assets for down the road. DO NOT want to run out of assets like TO or EDM. LGRW!
I think Rasmus would be a mistake. RD is not a long term need and he’ll be looking for a massive extension after a huge acquisition. He’s also severely over rated, struggles in the D zone and doesn’t have the offensive pop he once did.
No way I’d want to shell out three major pieces and then have to pay him more than Seider while he immediately becomes the third best D on the team. Spending all those assets and still having big holes at LW1 and second pair LD would be a big mistake in my opinion.
Is there a case we need to look at more situational analytics in analyzing 5on5 play?
The RW have one of the league’s best power plays and McLellan is all about game management. It feels like McLellan tries to manage games to build a lead and score 3 goals, but once this is accomplished he instructs the players to basically stop shooting and run out the clock.
For this reason, when the RW are playing well and building early leads the team spends a lot of game time emphasizing puck possession. In other words, RW 5on5 metrics end up being bad when the team is playing well bc they take the lead on 5on4 and then play a majority of the game not to lose.
Your last blog post re the 1st line 5on5 metrics sort of supports this analysis. During October and December/January (best months for the team) the first lines xGoal metrics sucked while during November (worst month for the team, RW constantly playing from behind) the 1st line had its best 5on5 metrics of the year.
That was what I thought too, about the switch anyway.
I'm thinking that the model probably doesn't take ice time into account. Its also odd that it doesn't account for the whole team.
What would the graphic look like if you switched Raymond and Cat?
Your Franchise forward would improve from passable to solid and your shutdown forward goes from luxury to solid (offense) and from exception to luxury (defense).
If you do that and you make the defense switch Prashanth mentions at the end of the article you actually look like a really solid contender based on the checklist... But to me that indicates the 6 players the checklist ignores must be more important than the checklist implies or else the Wings are a much better team than they get credit for. Probably some of both.
JBD is a luxury?! That seems like a curiosity, based on my completely infallible eye test.
Ha I also am not sure what the models see there...